Roll Call has released a batch of new SurveyUSA House race polls (10/4-5, likely voters) with lots of good news for Democrats. In this post, we’ll look at their numbers for Democratic incumbents. DavidNYC has results for their polls of IL-10, NC-08, and NY-29 here.
IN-09 (9/8-10 in parens):
Baron Hill (D-inc): 53 (50)
Mike Sodrel (R): 38 (39)
Eric Schansberg (L): 7 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)
Sodrel has been on a consistently downward trend ever since SUSA started tracking this race — back in July, he was at 42%. It looks like he picked the wrong year to mount a comeback. Remarkably, though perhaps not surprisingly given the tossup nature of Indiana this year, McCain only leads Obama by 49-47 in this R+7 district. To put that in perspective, Bush crushed Kerry by a 59-40 margin in this CD in 2004.
Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 50
Jeb Bradley (R): 41
Bob Kingsbury (L): 3
Peter Bearse (I): 3
(MoE: ±4%)
This is the first poll we’ve seen giving Shea-Porter a clear lead. For what it’s worth, I like SUSA better than I like Research 2000 or the UNH’s flawed Granite State Poll, so these numbers are particularly pleasing. In the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 52-45 here.
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 54
Melissa Hart (R): 42
(MoE: ±4%)
What’s particularly impressive about this number for Altmire is that McCain has a wide lead over Obama in this R+2.6 district: 51-43. That’s similar to the 54-45 margin that Bush carried this district by in 2004, so it doesn’t look like McCain’s “coattails” will cause Altmire too much damage. The only other poll we’ve seen of this race, a Hart internal, gave Altmire a 49-44 lead.
Steve Kagen (D-inc): 54
John Gard (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)
A much better result than John Gard’s internal polling has been telling us. Special bonus finding: Obama is leading McCain’t by 52-45 in this R+4 district.
God, I can’t wait for November.
A lot of people here said he would really hurt himself politically in his district when he came out strong for Obama fairly soon before the May primary. Turns out it looks like it isn’t going to hurt him at all!
And as others have said before, after this election can we get a candidate restraining order on Mike Sodrel?!?!
If we’re leading in those two it probably means a clean sweep for the second straight cycle.
are very encouraging.
If Almire wins this time, he’s Congressman until he gets caught in a scandal, decides to retire, dies, or is removed by a different map.
That area of PA is historically quite Democratic, and has a D registration advantage. It’s just not liberal at all. Think West Virginia. But the Presidential numbers there make me continue to think that FL is a better bet for Obama than OH.
Oh, and good news for Carol Shea-Porter.
I’m particularly happy about those two. Kagen and Shea-Porter have progressive voting records despite the leans of their districts. It’s encouraging to see that they are favored.